Use the following tables to answer Questions 13-14 A multiple regression was modeled with one dependent variable Y and 4 independent variables X1, X2, X3, and X4. Below are the regression results of the models of Xi with all the other X variables (i = 1, 2, 3, 4):

What is the correct order of autoregressive modeling steps? Test the significance of the autoregressive model with order p (Ap). If the null hypothesis is rejected, this model is selected; if the null hypothesis is NOT rejected, decrease p by 1 and repeat. Test the significance of the autoregressive model with order p (Ap). If the null hypothesis is NOT rejected, this model is selected; if the null hypothesis is rejected, decrease p by 1 and repeat. Form a series of “lagged predictor” variables Yi-1 , Yi-2, … ,Yi-p Use Excel to run regression model using all p variables. Choose p.

What elements of time series data do you observe?

The null hypothesis to test the significance of quadratic term at the 5 % significance level is:

A second-order autoregressive model for annual average mortgage rate is: Rate i = 0.95 + 1.0(Rate) i-1 – 0.5 (Rate) i-2 If the average mortgage rate in 2023 was 1.35, and in 2022 was 2.0, the forecast for 2025 is

Which of the above model/s is NOT acceptable? 

Which of the following interpretations is most likely to be correct based on the insignificance of the price-square term?

What is the Variance Inflationary Factor (VIF) of X1?

A fifth-order autoregressive model is fitted to a time series with monthly data for 5 years (i.e. sample size n=60). What are the degrees of freedom of the model?

Assume the smoothing coefficient W=0.4. What are the exponentially smoothed values for milk production in January and February of 2023?