Imagine that you are deciding if you should take an umbrella…
Imagine that you are deciding if you should take an umbrella with you when leaving home tomorrow. The previous knowledge that you have about the event is the average weather in Minneapolis and the weather prediction report, both quite noisy/unreliable. Those say that it is not going to rain. You look outside and there are dark grey clouds. Dark grey clouds are generally a strong indicator that it will rain that day. If you want to be “Bayesian” about your decision, what should you do?