The traditional Pythagorean developed by Bill James used an…
The traditional Pythagorean developed by Bill James used an exponent of 2 for baseball and we’ll use this exponent. In the 2023 season, the Reds scored 783 runs and allowed 821 runs. Let’s assume the lineup as constructed would repeat this output next year. Suppose the Reds had their choice of 2 players: 1) Cody Bellinger: accounted for 15 more runs than an average player due to his batting and baserunning and PREVENTED opponents from scoring 7 more run than an average fielder would have (i.e., he increases runs scored by 15 and DECREASES runs allowed by 7) 2) Blake Snell: allowed 20 fewer runs than an average pitcher and has no effect on the batting as the pitcher spot doesn’t hit. What would the Pythagorean predict as the win% for the Reds if they replace an average player with Snell? Report your answer as a decimal to 4 places: i.e., 20.34% should be entered as .2034