You have just received the ball on your own 25 after a kicko…
You have just received the ball on your own 25 after a kickoff. You have 3 choices on first and 10: 1) Run the ball for an absolutely guaranteed 3 yard gain (setting up 2nd and 7 on the 28) 2) Pass the ball for exactly 8 yards. This play has a 40% chance of success (60% chance of incomplete). Success means 2nd and 2 on the 33 and failure means 2nd and 10 on the 25. 3) Go for a 20 yard pass that has a 20% chance of success (setting up 1st and 10 at the 45 after success and 2nd and 10 at the 25 after failure). Which option do you choose? Use Winston’s Football State Values.