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**13 members have voted**

If I left out any parameters let me know. User has intermediate knowledge of all games, with better knowledge in UTH, VP, and Roulette.

Edit: Oops I should have broke down Light side vs Dark side on Craps poll question... oh well.

If you have 4 $250 sessions, will you double your $250 or go bust on them?

Quote:ChallengedMilly

If I left out any parameters let me know.

What is the goal?

Play for enjoyment?

Play for win?

Play for comps/points?

Goals: Play for 6-9 hours playing some type of 'fun' casino game. Obviously fun is super subjective but lets say "wins frequently enough to get that mini adrenaline rush / dopamine hit from winning."Quote:DieterWhat is the goal?

Play for enjoyment?

Play for win?

Play for comps/points?

I feel like people have done the research enough on how to maximize comps? At least depending on the casino. This is a Caesar's property if that matters.

Sounds like UTH is a favorite, maybe you win, maybe you get a comp. Should be a fine choice for the bankroll/duration.

Quote:Mission146Craps, either Pass Line or Don't Pass. In 6-9 total hours of play, you will almost certainly not lose $1,000 betting $10 every single round without deviating at all. It's all but impossible.

I tell this all the time to beginners at craps. Just make the minimum passline bet and you'll be cheering along with the high rollers.

So you won't bust out? Okay. But what's your expected finish after 8 hours?

30 PL bets resolved per hour * 8 hours = 240 bets resolved. I think that would be a fast moving game, based on my last trip to Vegas in June

240 bets * bet amount * HE = expected loss

HE on PL resolved is 1.41%

So assume 15 dollar PL bet.

240*15*(-1.41%)= Expected loss

3600*-.0141=$-50.76

So starting bankroll of $1000 ends up being $949.24 after 8 hours.

It would be nice if a more sophisticated person figured out the 3 SD bounds to give some idea of a more likely outcome.

haven't done it in a while, giving it a whirl. One easy thing with the passline is that the SD for one bet is 'one'Quote:LoquaciousMoFWThis might be simple enough for me to figure out.

30 PL bets resolved per hour * 8 hours = 240 bets resolved. I think that would be a fast moving game, based on my last trip to Vegas in June

240 bets * bet amount * HE = expected loss

HE on PL resolved is 1.41%

So assume 15 dollar PL bet.

240*15*(-1.41%)= Expected loss

3600*-.0141=$-50.76

So starting bankroll of $1000 ends up being $949.24 after 8 hours.

It would be nice if a more sophisticated person figured out the 3 SD bounds to give some idea of a more likely outcome.

you take the sqrt of 240, which is @15.5, so at $15 a whack that's $232; 464; and 696 for the biggie, 3 SDs

which gets added to the EV, so a very unlucky person could lose about $750, a very lucky one could win about $650. Sounds about right so I think I did it right.

note that the SD for Craps goes way up when you bet the free odds though

formula from https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/ ... "The standard deviation of the final result over n bets is the product of the standard deviation for one bet (see table) and the square root of the number of initial bets made in the session. This assumes that all bets made are of equal size."

If I was advising someone else on what to play for eight hours, I would suggest video poker at 1-cent per spin.

Quote:Mission146Craps, either Pass Line or Don't Pass. In 6-9 total hours of play, you will almost certainly not lose $1,000 betting $10 every single round without deviating at all. It's all but impossible.

With all due respect Mission, standing at the table playing with just one bet surrounded by other players are who are throwing chips at dealers, shouting, and in general carrying on is asking a bit much of anyone at that type of gambling venue. Each win or loss is, granted, one to one but not being a part of the party is much like watching the Weather Channel's 8 minute local updates. I personally could not envision anyone just standing there for 2 - 3 hours watching one bet get resolved toss by toss or hand by hand. The same with roulette or even "21," but that is just me.

tuttigym

Quote:odiousgambithaven't done it in a while, giving it a whirl. One easy thing with the passline is that the SD for one bet is 'one'Quote:LoquaciousMoFWThis might be simple enough for me to figure out.

30 PL bets resolved per hour * 8 hours = 240 bets resolved. I think that would be a fast moving game, based on my last trip to Vegas in June

240 bets * bet amount * HE = expected loss

HE on PL resolved is 1.41%

So assume 15 dollar PL bet.

240*15*(-1.41%)= Expected loss

3600*-.0141=$-50.76

So starting bankroll of $1000 ends up being $949.24 after 8 hours.

It would be nice if a more sophisticated person figured out the 3 SD bounds to give some idea of a more likely outcome.

you take the sqrt of 240, which is @15.5, so at $15 a whack that's $232; 464; and 696 for the biggie, 3 SDs

which gets added to the EV, so a very unlucky person could lose about $750, a very lucky one could win about $650. Sounds about right so I think I did it right.

note that the SD for Craps goes way up when you bet the free odds though

formula from https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/ ... "The standard deviation of the final result over n bets is the product of the standard deviation for one bet (see table) and the square root of the number of initial bets made in the session. This assumes that all bets made are of equal size."

Mr. OG: Knowing what you just posted, would you personally, $250 in hand, stand at the table for 2-3 hours and make just one $10 bet just for the experience knowing nothing exciting or unexpected is going to happen? Isn't that like watching the same Green Acres TV show over and over again?

tuttigym

Quote:LoquaciousMoFWThis might be simple enough for me to figure out.

30 PL bets resolved per hour * 8 hours = 240 bets resolved. I think that would be a fast moving game, based on my last trip to Vegas in June

240 bets * bet amount * HE = expected loss

HE on PL resolved is 1.41%

So assume 15 dollar PL bet.

240*15*(-1.41%)= Expected loss

3600*-.0141=$-50.76

So starting bankroll of $1000 ends up being $949.24 after 8 hours.

It would be nice if a more sophisticated person figured out the 3 SD bounds to give some idea of a more likely outcome.

The more sophisticated question would be: Where does one get $.56 from even money $15 wagers?

tuttigym

Quote:mwalz9Id play craps, but Id also lay small odds. Maybe 1x. So $10 line bet, 1x odds. Reduces tje house edge slightly, but doesnt over use small bankroll. Youd still have a hard time busting out in that short of time.

Mr. mwalz9: I am not sure that analysis is correct being that 73% of hands that establish a point, lose. Just sayin' what Mr. W. has presented in the past.

tuttigym

Quote:gordonm888Personally, I would play Pai Gow Poker. Its slow, the volatility is low because there are so many ties, and its a highly social game with players chatting with each other. Also, it does have a mental component to it - its not 3-Card poker.

For what it is worth and given the parameters of the OP, I agree with Mr.gordonm888.

tuttigym

Quote:tuttigymMr. mwalz9: I am not sure that analysis is correct being that 73% of hands that establish a point, lose. Just sayin' what Mr. W. has presented in the past.

tuttigym

If the odds bet has 0 house edge, and you lay odds on the don't after the point is established, does that not reduce your house edge and increase your EV?

There are better math guys here than me but a $25 line bet has to have a lower EV than a $25 line bet with odds.

Quote:tuttigymWith all due respect Mission, standing at the table playing with just one bet surrounded by other players are who are throwing chips at dealers, shouting, and in general carrying on is asking a bit much of anyone at that type of gambling venue. Each win or loss is, granted, one to one but not being a part of the party is much like watching the Weather Channel's 8 minute local updates. I personally could not envision anyone just standing there for 2 - 3 hours watching one bet get resolved toss by toss or hand by hand. The same with roulette or even "21," but that is just me.

tuttigym

The question presented was to not bust out in that period of time/number of resolutions. I presented an answer that makes such a result nearly impossible. That's the best that I can do. I did not claim it would be an exciting way to play.

Quote:mwalz9If the odds bet has 0 house edge, and you lay odds on the don't after the point is established, does that not reduce your house edge and increase your EV?

There are better math guys here than me but a $25 line bet has to have a lower EV than a $25 line bet with odds.

If the line rate is "expected" to lose 73% of the time after point establishment, the HE increases at that same rate. Point play is at least 60+% of all play. Playing with odds increases $$ losses with point play losses at the same rate or 73% of the time. I am sure that one or more of the "math" guys will configure an equation or formula to show something different, but that is not reality. I know that you have played craps and EXPERIENCED (emphasis) this phenomena.

Mission, yes you did exactly what was asked. I editorialized the reality of sheer boredom.

tuttigym

Quote:tuttigymIf the line rate is "expected" to lose 73% of the time after point establishment, the HE increases at that same rate. Point play is at least 60+% of all play. Playing with odds increases $$ losses with point play losses at the same rate or 73% of the time. I am sure that one or more of the "math" guys will configure an equation or formula to show something different, but that is not reality. I know that you have played craps and EXPERIENCED (emphasis) this phenomena.

Mission, yes you did exactly what was asked. I editorialized the reality of sheer boredom.

tuttigym

How about this:

Before you start playing that way, you say to yourself:

I brought with me $1,000 that I was willing to lose. If I am profitable after this 8-9 hours of doing nothing but betting $10 on the Pass Line, then I will take my profits and break them up such that I bet all profits on Pass Line + Odds for one hand. If I am down after the 8-9 hours of doing nothing but betting $10 on the Pass Line (the most likely case) , but have more than $500, then I will take any amount over $500 and bet it such that it all goes on Pass Line + Odds for one hand. If I am down and have less than $500, then, same thing. After that, same thing with any resultant amount between $500-$1000, and then same thing with any amount over $1,000.

So, at the end, you will, "Play up," to the next multiple of $500 until you are left with some multiple of $500. Since busting out is virtually impossible (on the $10 betting), you know that the most likely result will be leaving having made some sort of sizable bet. Does that sound sufficiently exciting?

I do not advise this, of course. I advise not playing at all. My backup advice would be just to take whatever you have after playing the desired amount of time and leave without making any more bets.

Quote:mwalz9If the odds bet has 0 house edge, and you lay odds on the don't after the point is established, does that not reduce your house edge and increase your EV?

There are better math guys here than me but a $25 line bet has to have a lower EV than a $25 line bet with odds.

Because the house edge is zero, that means that the house edge does not change (which means the expected value also does not change). A $25 bet on the passline, has a house edge of $0.35, which means there is an expected value to the player of -$0.35. That house edge and EV remains the same no matter how much is bet on the odds.

Quote:Mission146How about this:

Before you start playing that way, you say to yourself:

I brought with me $1,000 that I was willing to lose. If I am profitable after this 8-9 hours of doing nothing but betting $10 on the Pass Line, then I will take my profits and break them up such that I bet all profits on Pass Line + Odds for one hand. If I am down after the 8-9 hours of doing nothing but betting $10 on the Pass Line (the most likely case) , but have more than $500, then I will take any amount over $500 and bet it such that it all goes on Pass Line + Odds for one hand. If I am down and have less than $500, then, same thing. After that, same thing with any resultant amount between $500-$1000, and then same thing with any amount over $1,000.

So, at the end, you will, "Play up," to the next multiple of $500 until you are left with some multiple of $500. Since busting out is virtually impossible (on the $10 betting), you know that the most likely result will be leaving having made some sort of sizable bet. Does that sound sufficiently exciting?

I do not advise this, of course. I advise not playing at all. My backup advice would be just to take whatever you have after playing the desired amount of time and leave without making any more bets.

Editorially. playing 8 or 9 hours of $10 bets would drive most sane folks insane knowing they could only win $10 on any given hand. I am glad you did not advise this or the rest of the advertised play. Your last two pieces of advise are the best IMO.

tuttigym

Quote:tuttigym

Editorially. playing 8 or 9 hours of $10 bets would drive most sane folks insane knowing they could only win $10 on any given hand. I am glad you did not advise this or the rest of the advertised play. Your last two pieces of advise are the best IMO.

tuttigym

I've grinded on Video Poker online for ten cent bets for several hours, so that sort of thing wouldn't bother me. Of course, I did it that way because I was at a tremendous advantage on a deposit match promotion and wanted as little variance as possible. I'll just take the money, thank you.

It's a true test in discipline, which I could really stand to be better in other areas of life.

Quote:TomGBecause the house edge is zero, that means that the house edge does not change (which means the expected value also does not change). A $25 bet on the passline, has a house edge of $0.35, which means there is an expected value to the player of -$0.35. That house edge and EV remains the same no matter how much is bet on the odds.

OK, somehow a 73% loss ratio becomes 0, and when one bets $25 on the PL, a 7 out results in the house taking only $24.65. Is that correct, or am I suppose to give the house an extra $.35 when the dealer takes my green chip? So next time when I go to the table and lose my PL wager and the dealer does not give me my 35 cents, what should I do? To whom do I complain?

tuttigym

Quote:Mission146I've grinded on Video Poker online for ten cent bets for several hours, so that sort of thing wouldn't bother me. Of course, I did it that way because I was at a tremendous advantage on a deposit match promotion and wanted as little variance as possible. I'll just take the money, thank you.

It's a true test in discipline, which I could really stand to be better in other areas of life.

I personally could not do that as, after a while, boredom would set in, and i would actually fall asleep at the terminal.

Discipline in other areas, for me, also needs some work.

tuttigym

Quote:tuttigymOK, somehow a 73% loss ratio becomes 0, and when one bets $25 on the PL, a 7 out results in the house taking only $24.65. Is that correct, or am I suppose to give the house an extra $.35 when the dealer takes my green chip? So next time when I go to the table and lose my PL wager and the dealer does not give me my 35 cents, what should I do? To whom do I complain?

tuttigym

That is not correct.

Complain to anyone you want, other than wizardofvegas. Twitter would be a good place to start.

I would not do it and I've never seen anyone do it either, not for 8 hrs.Quote:tuttigymMr. OG: Knowing what you just posted, would you personally, $250 in hand, stand at the table for 2-3 hours and make just one $10 bet just for the experience knowing nothing exciting or unexpected is going to happen? Isn't that like watching the same Green Acres TV show over and over again?

tuttigym

generally speaking, for the reason you are getting at, I don't recommend Craps for those with not much bankroll.

Mission was rather focused on the "making my bankroll last" part of the OP and we wound up here.

They do not have anything less than 25 cent vp, and realistically I would max bet for $1.25 a spin considering I hit a royal last time I was there and would beat myself up for playing 1 coin and hit another one or 4 of a kind / straight flush.Quote:TomGUnder normal conditions, I would not play any of those games (nor any casino game) for eight hours. Under non-normal conditions, I would make sure to have more than $1,000.

If I was advising someone else on what to play for eight hours, I would suggest video poker at 1-cent per spin.

Also forgot to put bubble craps on the list, doh. Only issue with it was the 'fun' factor wasn't very high since it's such a passive game without the other players engaged in the rolls.

Quote:TomGUnder normal conditions, I would not play any of those games (nor any casino game) for eight hours. Under non-normal conditions, I would make sure to have more than $1,000.

If I was advising someone else on what to play for eight hours, I would suggest video poker at 1-cent per spin.

This is good advice and I used this strategy once before the pandemic when Red Rock Casino used to have a random drawing for a must hit jackpot.

In order to be eligible you had to be actively playing with your card in a machine.

The must hit jackpot had to be awarded by $10,000. And everyone playing at that moment would get free play up to $100.

At the time, the jackpot was north of $9900 and it seemed like every machine in Red Rock had a player.

I found a 100 play VP machine, put in $1 and started playing 1-cent on one line. Ironically I hit some quads while playing one line (none dealt) and I was there when the big jackpot was hit and I got $35 of free play.

On the machine itself I cashed out about 38 cents, if I remember correctly.

Quote:tuttigymI personally could not do that as, after a while, boredom would set in, and i would actually fall asleep at the terminal.

Discipline in other areas, for me, also needs some work.

tuttigym

It was online. Even if I fell asleep, I'd generally already be in bed playing on my phone and could finish playing when I woke up.

Quote:AlanMendelsonThis is good advice and I used this strategy once before the pandemic when Red Rock Casino used to have a random drawing for a must hit jackpot.

In order to be eligible you had to be actively playing with your card in a machine.

The must hit jackpot had to be awarded by $10,000. And everyone playing at that moment would get free play up to $100.

At the time, the jackpot was north of $9900 and it seemed like every machine in Red Rock had a player.

I found a 100 play VP machine, put in $1 and started playing 1-cent on one line. Ironically I hit some quads while playing one line (none dealt) and I was there when the big jackpot was hit and I got $35 of free play.

On the machine itself I cashed out about 38 cents, if I remember correctly.

Good play. That isn't bad. A casino near me used to have the same thing and, when the top one would hit, it would be a fixed amount to everyone else, though I forget how much. I'd probably want to see how quickly it was moving, of course, to get an idea of how much I am actually making per hour doing it, but it is pretty much free money.

I never did that myself (as I recall), but I probably would have if it was a reasonable amount away. I don't recall ever being there when it was close. I did do something kind of similar, but it's hard to explain in the first place and was so long ago that I'd probably not even explain it correctly.

Unfortunately no such luck in my scenario. It'd add up to what ever tiny bit of comping. Also the lowest denom they have is. 25.Quote:Mission146I've grinded on Video Poker online for ten cent bets for several hours, so that sort of thing wouldn't bother me. Of course, I did it that way because I was at a tremendous advantage on a deposit match promotion and wanted as little variance as possible. I'll just take the money, thank you.

It's a true test in discipline, which I could really stand to be better in other areas of life.

Quote:ChallengedMillyThey do not have anything less than 25 cent vp, and realistically I would max bet for $1.25 a spin considering I hit a royal last time I was there and would beat myself up for playing 1 coin and hit another one or 4 of a kind / straight flush.

If anyone is worried about hitting a royal with less than five, most casinos I go to have 25-cent blackjack, which would have a better return to the player than most any other table game or machine.

-----

I used to love the feeling of eating at the buffet until I felt like throwing up, then play the 1-cent VP while digesting.

Quote:TomGBecause the house edge is zero, that means that the house edge does not change (which means the expected value also does not change). A $25 bet on the passline, has a house edge of $0.35, which means there is an expected value to the player of -$0.35. That house edge and EV remains the same no matter how much is bet on the odds.

This is a FICTICIOUS conversation of Mr. TomG explaining a game to a youngster:

TG: This game gives NO advantage to your opponent.

Yngstr: Wow great. That means I can win the game and not worry that my opponent will take unfair advantage over my efforts.

TG: Well not exactly, during most of the play time, because of the rules, your opponent will win almost 3 out of four games.

Ygstr: Huh? What???????

tuttigym

Quote:TomGThat is not correct.

Complain to anyone you want, other than wizardofvegas. Twitter would be a good place to start.

I do not Facebook or Tweet. I will debate or engage directly with anyone willing to do the same and willing to substantively answer direct questions with intellectually driven answers.

tuttigym

Quote:AlanMendelsonI tell this all the time to beginners at craps. Just make the minimum passline bet and you'll be cheering along with the high rollers.

So you won't bust out? Okay. But what's your expected finish after 8 hours?

While you are correct it never works out this way. I have been teaching people to play for years. 90% get bored after 10 minutes and walk away. Explain the math and they get even more bored. They get excited at their number hitting. They like when you tell them you know what the opposite side of the dice add up to. The women like seeing the male dealers handle cheques flawlessly. The men like banter with the dealers.

The ones who will stand and bet pass/don't are the ones who love a grind. Who will buddy up and run a doey/donty to grind out free drinks and hope for comps that never come because they are just making line bets. And anyone takes offense to that I am one of you so don't.

I'd play BJ. You get to sit, if you play shoe-dealt you let your comps clock run while the dealer shuffles. You can either be social or take a "I want to be left alone" look. You can figure that you and the dealer are both "at work" and he gets medical but you do not pay union dues.

Quote:AZDuffmanWhile you are correct it never works out this way. I have been teaching people to play for years. 90% get bored after 10 minutes and walk away. Explain the math and they get even more bored. They get excited at their number hitting. They like when you tell them you know what the opposite side of the dice add up to. The women like seeing the male dealers handle cheques flawlessly. The men like banter with the dealers.

What you have written here is very correct especially the "math" part, that is, if your "math" explanations mirror "establishment" guideposts.

Quote:AZDuffmanThe ones who will stand and bet pass/don't are the ones who love a grind. Who will buddy up and run a doey/donty to grind out free drinks and hope for comps that never come because they are just making line bets. And anyone takes offense to that I am one of you so don't.

I have run the doey/don't but not for drinks or comps, but, for me, allows more options. The casinos I frequent are very generous with their comps; I drink O'Doul's; and I play modestly. BTW other player reactions to the d/d is quite positive, and I teach the dealers to knock on the table rather than taking the chips and replacing them except for the 12 at CO.

While there is consensus of negative expectations here, my approach is always just the opposite.

tuttigym

Quote:tuttigymThis is a FICTICIOUS conversation of Mr. TomG explaining a game to a youngster:

TG: This game gives NO advantage to your opponent.

Yngstr: Wow great. That means I can win the game and not worry that my opponent will take unfair advantage over my efforts.

TG: Well not exactly, during most of the play time, because of the rules, your opponent will win almost 3 out of four games.

Ygstr: Huh? What???????

tuttigym

Your misquoting is just so weird and out of place that it sounds like there must be some marbles lost.

For anyone who is completely clueless about house advantages or probability of winning, all the information I said can also be found right here: https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/basics/