You fit an AR(1) model to T=48 months of data (2008.m1-2011….
You fit an AR(1) model to T=48 months of data (2008.m1-2011.m12) on housing starts, i.e., how many new, private, residential housing units began construction in a particular month t. You are planning to use it to forecast next month’s housing starts given this month’s value. This